MARKET OUTLOOK 30th Sept

ON the day of expiry The NIFTY opened on a negative note and traded in a narrow range for the initial hours.

The nifty recorded a low of 4906, before picking up strong momentum towards the
end of the day.

The nifty finally closed at 5015, after recording a high of 5034. After a day of consolidation the index continued its upward movement and has closed above the
5000 levels.

Going forward the index is likely to test its immediate resistance placed at 5060
levels (negative gap resistance level).

Sustenance above the 5060 levels could see the index heading towards the target of 5110 /5170.

In case the nifty fails to get past the resistance of 5060 then it could be confined in the range of 4900 on the downside and 5060 on the upside. The intraday supports for the index are placed at 4980 /4930 /4900 levels.

MARKET OUTLOOK 29th Sept

The NIFTY opened on a positive note and registered an intraday high of 5006 levels. The Index witnessed profit booking from the higher level which led it to decline to an intraday low of 4918.

The nifty finally closed at 4945 with a loss of 25 points. The Nifty consolidated its gain after it witnessed a sharp rally of more than 2 % during yesterday’s session.

The index has closed below its short term moving average placed 4962 levels and a sustain move above this level could see the index continuing its upward movement
and could test the levels of 5000 -5025 / 5070 (negative gap resistance) levels.

On the downside the index has immediate support at the 4905 levels followed by the 4875 /4830 levels.

MARKET OUTLOOK 28th Sept

The nifty opened the session on a positive note on back of strong global cues. The index maintained its strength throughout the day and registered an intraday high of 4982.

The Nifty finally closed at 4971, a total gain of 135 (2.8 %) points. The index continued its strong rebound that was witnessed during the latter part of the
yesterday’s sessions.

The nifty now needs to sustain above 4969 (Short Term Moving average), which would give some strength and a possible test of levels of 5025 or even 5070 (negative gap
resistance).

On the downside the index has supports at the levels of 4930 / 4900 / 4870 / 4835.

MARKET OUTLOOK 27th Sept

The Nifty opened on a negative note and plunged to an intraday low of 4758 levels. The NIFTY

lost more than 100 points during the early part of the day’s trade.

The index witnessed a pullback from the lower levels and finally closed at 4835 levels with a loss of 32 points.

The index continued its downward movement after witnessing a breakdown from its crucial

support levels of 4910-4900 levels.

The index has managed to achieve its downside target of 4840 /4800 /4750 (intraday basis). Going forward the index is likely to witness a volatile trading session in the coming session, wherein it is likely to trade in a range of 5025 on the upside and 4720 on the downside.

The intraday resistances are placed at 4910 followed by the 4970 / 5025 levels. A close below the recent swing low of 4720 levels would accentuate the declining momentum towards the level of 4675 /4600 levels.

MARKET OUTLOOK 26rd Sept

The NIFTY opened the session on a negative note and plunged to an intraday low of 4829 levels.

The index witnessed a pullback from the lower level which led it to an intraday high of 4930

levels. However the index failed to hold on to the higher levels and finally closed at 4867 levels

with a loss of 55 points.

With today’s movement the index has registered a breakdown from its critical support level of

4900-4910 levels.

This breakdown suggests that the index is likely to decline towards the level of 4840 /4800 /4750-4720 (recent swing low level) in the near term, if it sustains below the 4900

levels on a closing basis.

Further it is to be noted that the index has witnessed a sharp fall of more than 250 points in the

last 2 sessions which has stretched the short term indicators into an oversold territory.

Hence a pullback from the current level cannot be ruled out. Any up move from the current level is likely to face stiff resistance around the 4910 followed by the 4970 / 5025 /5060 levels.

MARKET OUTLOOK 23rd Sept

The NIFTY opened the session on a negative gap on back of weak global cues. The index spent

the entire session trading in the negative territory and the selling pressure increased as the

session progressed.

The index registered an intraday low of 4907 and finally closed at the 4923 level with a loss of 209 points.

The most important observation is that the nifty has closed near to its support levels of 4910-

4900 .

This is a very critical level (as it comes out as a support zone on multiple factors) and we believe that the chances of nifty holding out here are by far the best.

If the nifty sustains below 4900, expect the decline to accelerate to levels of 4860 /4800 or even test its recent swing low level of 4720.

On the upside, the immediate short term upside seems to be limited to levels of 4970 /5025 levels.

MARKET OUTLOOK 21th Sept

The NIFTY opened the session on a positive note and traded in a narrow range for the initial

period. Buying activity was intensified in the later part of the session which led the index to an

intraday high of 5149 levels.

The index finally closed at 5140 with a gain of 108 points. With today’s movement the index has witnessed a strong pullback from its short term moving averages.

Going forward the index is likely to test its crucial resistance levels of 5200-5230 (negative gap resistance level).

Sustenance above the 5230 would see the index filling up its negative gap and it could head towards the levels of 5270 / 5300 -5320 levels in a short span of time.

On the downside if the index gives any pullback from the current levels, it will garner support at

the levels of 5100 / 5070 /5030 levels.

MARKET OUTLOOK 20th Sept

The NIFTY opened on a negative note on back of weak global cues. Thereafter the index traded

in a narrow range for rest of the session.

The nifty registered an intraday low of 5019 levels and eventually closed the day at 5031 with a gain of 52 points.

With today’s movement the index has closed just below its short term moving average (currently placed at 5036 levels).

Sustenance below the 5036 levels could see a bit more of corrective decline to levels of 5000 / 4970 /4910 levels.

On the upside the index has resistances at the levels of 5070 / 5115 /5160 /5200-5230 (negative gap resistance level).

In case the nifty closes below the 4910 levels, expect downward movement to gain momentum

and index could decline to 4860-4840 /4800 / 4750 levels.

MARKET OUTLOOK 19th Sept

The NIFTY opened on a positive note on back of strong global cues. The index witnessed a

volatile session with high volume participation.

The nifty registered an intraday low of 5068 levels and eventually closed the day at 5084 with a marginal gain of 8 points.

The index continued its upwards movement after registering a breakout from the trading range

of 4910-5050 levels.

As long as index closes above the 5050 levels , it is likely to head towards the level of 5115 /5160 /5190 /5200-5230 (negative gap resistance level) in the near term.

Sustenance below the 5050 levels could see a bit more of corrective decline towards the level of

5020 /4970 / 4940 levels.

MARKET OUTLOOK 16th Sept

The NIFTY opened on a tentative note and plunged to an intraday low of 4967. Buying activity

was intensified in the later part of the session which led the index an intraday high of 5091.

The nifty eventually closed the day at 5075 with gain of 63 points. With today’s movement the nifty has registered a breakout from its trading range of 4910- 5050 levels and in the process has negated the bearish head and shoulder pattern on its intraday chart.

This breakout suggests that the index could continue its upward movement towards the levels of 5115 /5160 /5200-5230 (negative gap resistance level), if it sustains above the 5050 level.

On the downside the index has immediate support at the 5050 level followed by the 5020 /4970

levels.

MARKET OUTLOOK 15th Sept

The NIFTY opened on a tentative note and traded in a narrow range for the initial period. The

nifty recorded a low of 4917, before staging a comeback to move up to a high of 5026.

The nifty eventually closed the day at 5012 with gain of 71 points. With today’s movement the nifty has managed to bounce back from its neckline support level of 4910.

Going forward the index needs to closed above the 5050 levels to negate the bearish head

and shoulder pattern (Intraday chart) and then it could head towards the level of 5100 /5160.

Failure to close above 5050 level could see the index trading in a range of 5050 on the upside

and 4910 on the downside.

A break below the 4910 level could see the bearish head and shoulder taking its effect and then the index could decline towards the levels of 4860-4840 /4800 /4750.

MARKET OUTLOOK 14th Sept

The NIFTY opened on a positive note and registered an intraday high of 5030 levels. The Index

witnessed selling pressure from the higher level which led it to decline to an intraday low of

4911. The Nifty finally closed at 4940 with a marginal loss of 5 points.

The most important observation is that the nifty appears to be forming a Head & Shoulder

pattern (as marked in the intraday chart above).

A Head & Shoulder is a bearish pattern as it is associated with sharp price decline once the Nifty records a breakdown from its neckline support level of 4910.

The measuring implications of the pattern suggest that following a breakdown the index could head towards the following price levels: 4860-4840 /4800 / 4750 levels.

On the upside the index has multiple resistances at the levels of 4980 / 5020 /5050. The head

shoulder pattern would be negated once the nifty closes above the 5050 level.

MARKET OUTLOOK 13th Sept

The Nifty opened the session with a negative gap and plunged to an intraday low of 4911 levels.

The NIFTY lost close to 150 points during the early part of the day’s trade.

The index witnessed a pullback from the lower levels and finally closed at 4946 levels with a loss of 112 points.

In our previous update we had mentioned that a sustenance below the 5050 level ( Short Term

Moving average ) could start a fresh round of decline, which could take the index to 5000-4990 /4960-4940 levels and the nifty did that, thus meeting our all targets.

Going forward the index is likely to gain momentum on the downside once it sustains below the 4900-4890 levels and then could test the following levels: 4860-4840 / 4800.

On the upside the index has immediate resistance at the 4985 levels, above which the index is

likely to fill up its negative gap and could head towards the levels of 5050.

MARKET OUTLOOK 12th Sept

The Nifty opened the session on a tentative note and registered an intraday high of 5163 levels.

Thereafter the index spent the entire session trading in the negative territory and the selling

pressure increased as the session progressed.

The index registered an intraday low of 5046 levels and finally closed the session at the 5059 levels with a loss of 93 points.

The Index today failed to sustain above the 5110-5130 levels and in the process has also closed

just above its short moving average currently placed at 5050 levels.

Sustenance below the 5050 levels could start a fresh round of decline, which could take the index to the 5000-4990 / 4960- 4940 levels in the near term.

On the upside the index has immediate resistance at the 5110 levels followed by the 5160 / 5190 /5230 (negative gap resistance level).

MARKET OUTLOOK 9th Sept

The NIFTY opened on a tentative note and traded in a narrow range for most part of the session.

The nifty recorded a low of 5098, before picking up strong momentum towards the end of the

day. The nifty finally closed at 5153 with a gain of 28 points.

With today’s movement the index has given a closed above its resistance zone of 5110-5130

levels.

Going forward the index is likely to head towards the levels of 5190 /5230(negative gap resistance level.

The level of 5230 would act as important resistance level and the index could witness some kind of profit booking around this level.

On the downside the index has support at the levels of 5110 / 5070 / 5030 levels. A close above the 5230 would see the index filling up its negative gap and it could head towards the levels of 5300 -5320 levels in a short span of time.

MARKET OUTLOOK 8th Sept

The NIFTY opened on a positive note taking cues from its Asian peers. Thereafter the index

maintained its strength throughout the day and registered an intraday high of 5154.

The nifty eventually closed at 5124 levels, a total gain of 60 points. With today’s movement the index has given a close above its resistance level of 5110 (being the 38.2 % retracement from 08 July highs of 5740 to 26 August lows of 4720).

The index now needs to sustain above the 5130 levels to continue its upward movement and a possible test of 5190 /5230 (negative gap resistance level).

Failure to sustain above 5110-5130 levels could see the index confined in a range of 5130 on the

upside and 4950-4940 on the downside.

The immediate support is place at 5070 levels followed by the 5040 / 5017 (short term moving average).

MARKET OUTLOOK 7th Sept

The Nifty opened the session on a negative note and plunged to an intraday low of 4942 levels.

The nifty witnessed a strong bounce from the lower levels which led it to an intraday high of 5072 levels. The nifty finally closed at 5064 with a gain of 47 points.

It is to be noted that the index has once again managed to bounce back from its short term moving average (as shown in the chart above). Going forward the index is likely to test its key resistance level of 5110- (being the 38.2 % retracement from 08 July highs of 5740 to 26 August lows of 4720) 5130. Sustenance above 5130 levels could see the index head higher to the level of 5190 /5230 (negative gap resistance level).

Failure to close above 5110-5130 levels could see the index confined in a range of 5130 on the upside and 4950-4940 on the downside. The immediate support is place at 5030 levels followed by the 4988 (short term moving average) / 4950-4940 levels.

MARKET OUTLOOK

The Nifty opened the session on a bearish note on the back of negative cues from its global

peers.

The nifty recorded a low of 4964, before picking up strong momentum towards the end of

the day. The nifty finally closed at 5017, after recording a high of 5030.

Despite the selling pressure witnessed during the initial part of the trading session, the index has

managed to close above its short term EMA (currently placed at 4965 levels), which would act

as an immediate support.

Going forward the index is likely to trade in a range of 4965-4950 on the downside and 5110-5130 on the upside.

In case the nifty closes below the 4950 level, expect a bit more of corrective decline to 4920

/4870 levels.

On the upside 5050 is acting as an immediate resistance level followed by the 5110- 5130 levels.

MARKET OUTLOOK

The NIFTY opened the session with a positive gap and registered an intraday high of 5113

levels.

The index shed some of its initial gains and declined to an intraday low of 4993 levels. Buying activity was intensified in the later part of the session which led the index hold on to its intraday gains. The index finally closed at 5040 levels, a gain of 39 points.

The index could take a breather after registering a strong rise of more than 6 % over the last few

days and the levels of 5110 - (being the 38.2 % retracement from 08 July highs of 5740 to 26 August lows of 4720) 5130 could see some supply emerge.

The immediate support for the nifty is placed at levels of 5000 / 4952 (short Term moving average) /4920.

In case the nifty sustains above 5130 levels then it could head higher to the level of 5190 /5230

(negative gap resistance level).

MARKET OUTLOOK

The NIFTY opened the session on a positive gap and then traded in a narrow range for most part
of the day.

The nifty recorded a low of 4927, before staging a comeback to move up to a high of 5016. The nifty eventually closed the day at 5001 with gain of 81 points.

The index has witnessed a strong pullback of more than 250 points in last two sessions. This
pullback has helped the index to trade above its short term moving average (currently placed at
4927 levels), which has been acting as a strong resistance in the recent up moves.

Going forward the index has immediate resistance placed at the 5030 levels, above which the index
could head towards the levels of 5080 /5125.

On the downside supports are placed at 4960 / 4927 (short term moving average) / 4870 levels.