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Monday, August 29, 2011

MARKET OUTLOOK

The NIFTY opened on a positive note and failed to sustain at the higher levels. Thereafter the
index spent the entire session trading in the negative territory and the selling pressure increased
as the session progressed.

The index registered an intraday low of 4720 levels and finally closed the session at the 4747 levels with a loss of 91 points.

We had mentioned in our previous update that a break below the 4800 level could start a fresh
round of decline, which could take the index 4740 /4700-4690 / 4650 levels and the nifty did that.

With today’s movement the NIFTY has managed to achieve our first downside targets of 4740
levels.

Going forward the index is likely to decline towards it next support level of 4700-4690
/4650 levels in the near term.

Any pullback from the current level is likely to face resistances at the 4800 /4840 /4890 levels.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

MARKET OUTLOOK

The NIFTY opened the session on a positive note and registered an intraday high of 4962 levels.
The Index witnessed selling pressure from the higher level which led it to decline to an intraday
low of 4875.

The NIFTY finally closed at 4888 with a loss of 60 points. After two session of pullback from the lows of 4800 levels the index witnessed selling pressure near to the short term moving average currently placed at 4969 levels.

We have discussed in our previous update that the index has been facing stiff resistance at the short term moving average since the fall from 5500 levels.

Tomorrow being the expiry day for the F-O segment we might witness a volatile trading session where in the nifty might trade in a range of 4800 on the downside and 4970 on the upside.

The intraday resistances are placed at the levels of 4930 /4970 followed by the 5000-5020 levels.


On the downside the immediate support for the index are placed at 4860 and 4800 levels.

Sustenance below the 4800 levels could start a fresh round of decline, which could take the index
to the 4740 /4700-4690 / 4650 in the near term.

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

MARKET OUTLOOK

The NIFTY opened on a positive note and failed to sustain at the higher levels. The index shed
some of its initial gains and registered an intraday low of 4863 levels.

But the index witnessed some buying at lower levels as the session progressed which helped the index recover and thus registered an intraday high of 4965 levels.

The index finally closed at 4948 levels, a gain of 50 points. With today’s movement the index has managed to close above its negative gap resistance placed at 4900-4930 levels.

Sustenance above the 4930 levels could see index test its immediate resistances placed at the 5000-5020 levels.

An Important observation to me made is that the every pullback from the fall of 5500 to 4800
levels has failed to close above the short term moving average currently placed at 5500 levels
(as shown in the chart above).

Hence a close above the short term moving average would inject some optimism and the index could head towards the levels of 5080 / 5130 levels.

Failure to sustain above the 5000-5020 levels could see the index trading in a range of 5000 on
the upside and 4800 on the downside.

The immediate support for the index is placed at 4930- 4900 followed by the 4860 /4800 levels.

A break below 4800 would be negative and trigger further declines to the level of 4740 /4700-
4690 / 4650 in the near term.

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

MARKET OUTLOOK

The NIFTY opened on a tentative note and traded in a narrow range for the initial hours.

The nifty recorded a low of 4808, before picking up strong momentum towards the afternoon session.

The nifty finally closed at 4898, after recording a high of 4910. After witnessing a sharp fall of more than 250 points in the last two sessions the index today hasgiven a technical pullback The nifty now needs to sustain above 4930 levels , which would give some strength and a possible continuation of the pullback to the levels of 5000-5020.

In case the nifty fails to get past 4930, it would keep facing supply pressure and could re test its immediate low of 4800 levels.

A break below 4800 would be negative and trigger further declines to the level of 4740 /4700-
4690 / 4650 in the near term.

Monday, August 22, 2011

MARKET OUTLOOK

The Nifty opened the session on a bearish note on the back of negative cues from its global
peers.

The index spent the entire session trading in the negative territory and the selling pressure
increased as the session progressed.

The index registered an intraday low of 4796 levels and finally closed the session at the 4845 levels with a loss of 98 points.

The index continued its downward movement once it closed below its recent swing low of 4950
and in the process has managed to achieved our target levels of 4890 /4840 /4800.

Going forward if the index sustains below the 4800 then the declining momentum could accentuate to the levels of 4740 /4700-4690 / 4650 in the near term.

The immediate upside seems to be limited to the levels of 4890—4930 levels (negative gap
resistance), but a close above the 4930 levels might inject some optimist and a bounce to levels
of 5000-5020.

Friday, August 19, 2011

MARKET OUTLOOK

The Nifty opened the session on a positive note and registered an intraday high of 5078.

Thereafter the index spent the entire session trading in the negative territory and the selling
pressure increased as the session progressed.

The index registered an intraday low of 4932 levels and finally closed the session at the 4944 levels with a loss of 112 points.

In our previous update we had mentioned that a break below the 5015 level could see the index
re testing its recent swing low levels of 4950 and the nifty did that.

Sustenance below the 4950 levels could start a fresh round of decline, which could take the index to the 4890 / 4840 / 4800 levels in the near term.

Any pullback from the current level is likely to face stiff resistances at the levels 5010 / 5040
levels.

Thursday, August 18, 2011

MARKET OUTLOOK

The NIFTY opened the session on a positive note and registered an intraday high of 5112 levels.

However the selling returned at the higher levels which plunged the index to an intraday low of
5017.

The NIFTY witnessed pullback from the lower level and eventually closed at 5056 with a
gain of 20 points.

The index has been trading in a narrow range of 5015-5130 for the last couple of trading session.

In case the nifty sustains below the 5015 levels, it would keep facing supply pressure and could re test its recent swing low levels of 4950.

A break below 4950 would be negative and could trigger further declines to the level of 4890 / 4840.

On the upside the index needs to sustain above the 5130 levels to continue it pullback to the
levels of 5200-5235.

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

MARKET OUTLOOK

The NIFTY opened on a positive note and registered an intraday high of 5132 levels. The Index
witnessed selling pressure from the higher level which led it to decline to an intraday low of
5015.

The NIFTY eventually closed at 5035 with a loss of 37 points. Despite the strong opening the index failed to trade above its immediate resistance level of 5130 levels.

Going forward the index is likely to decline towards the level of 5110 / 4950 levels (recent swing low) in the near term.

Any pullback from the current levels is likely to face resistances at the levels of 5095 /5130 / 5200.

A close below 4950 would be negative and could see the index extending its declines towards the
levels of 4890 / 4840.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

MARKET OUTLOOK

The NIFTY opened on a positive note and registered an intraday high of 5194 levels. The Index
witnessed selling pressure from the higher level which led it to decline to an intraday low of
5053.

The NIFTY eventually closed at 5072 with a loss of 65 points. With today’s movement the index has been given a breakdown below its narrow range of 5120- 5200.

This breakdown suggests that the index is likely to decline towards the next support level
of 5025 / 4950.

A close below 4950 would see the index extending its declines towards the level of 4890 / 4840 in the near term.

The immediate upside seems to be limited to the levels of 5130 /5200-5235 levels, but a close above the 5235 levels, might inject some optimism and one could see the index bounce towards the levels of 5270 /5330.

Friday, August 12, 2011

MARKET OUTLOOK

The NIFTY opened on a tentative note and traded in a narrow range throughout the day. The
index witnessed a lackluster session with low volume participation.

The index registered a low of 5121 and eventually closed at 5138 levels with a loss of 22 points.

The index has been consolidating in a narrow range of 5120-5200 for the last couple of trading
session.

In case the nifty sustains below the 5120 levels, it would keep facing supply pressure and
could re test support levels of 5090 /5030 / 4950.

A break below 4950 would be negative and trigger further declines to the level of 4890 / 4840.
On the upside the index needs to sustain above the 5200-5235 levels to continue it pullback to
the levels of 5270 / 5330.

Thursday, August 11, 2011

MARKET OUTLOOK

The NIFTY opened the session with a positive gap and registered an intraday high of 5197
levels. Thereafter the index traded in a narrow range for rest of the session.

The nifty registered a low of 5123 and eventually closed the day at 5161 with a gain of 88 points.
After witnessing a sharp fall of more than 600 points in the last seven sessions the index today
has given a technical pullback.

The index is now trading near to its immediate resistance level of 5200-5235. Sustenance above the 5235 level could see the index testing its breakdown level of 5270 followed by the 5325 levels.

Failure to sustain above the 5200--5235 level could see index declining towards the level of 5090 /5030 /4950 levels.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

MARKET OUTLOOK

The NIFTY opened the session with a negative gap on back of weak global cues. The nifty recorded a low of 4946, before staging a comeback to move up to a high of 5167.

The nifty eventually closed the day at 5072 with a loss of 45 points. With today’s movement the index has managed to achieve our downside targets of 5050 /4990- 4970 (as discussed in our previous update).

Going forward the index is likely to witness a volatile trading sessions over the upcoming few days, wherein it is likely to trade in a range of 5200-5230 on the upside and 4950 on the downside.

A close below 4950 would be negative and the index could slide further downside to the levels of
4890 / 4840 levels in the near term.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

MARKET OUTLOOK

The Nifty opened on a negative note on back of weak global cues and plunged to an intraday low
of 5054 levels. The index witnessed a pullback from the lower levels and registerd a high of 5204
levels. The NIFTY finally closed at 5118 levels with a loss of 92 points.

The index continued its downward movement after the breakdown witnessed from its crucial
support levels of 5270 levels. The index has managed to achieve our first downside target of
5100-5090 (intraday basis). The index is likely to gain momentum on the downside once it
sustains below the 5090 levels and could test the following levels: 5050 / 4990-4970.

Further it is to be noted that the index has witnessed a sharp fall of more than 400 points in the
last 6 sessions which has stretched the short term indicators into an oversold territory. Hence the index might witness a sharp pullback from the current or lower level. On the upside the index
has multiple resistances at the 5230 /5270 levels.

Monday, August 8, 2011

MARKET OUTLOOK

The Nifty opened on a negative note and plunged to an intraday low of 5116 levels. The NIFTY
lost close to 200 points during the early part of the day’s trade. The index witnessed a pullback
from the lower levels and finally closed at 5211 levels with a loss of 120 points.
The most important observation is that the index has registered a breakdown from its critical
support level of 5270 levels (as shown in the chart above). This breakdown suggests that the
index is likely to decline towards the level of 5100 - 5090 / 4970 /4800 levels in the near term.
Another key observation to be made is the oversold reading on short term indicators. Hence a
pullback from the current level cannot be ruled out. Any up move from the current level is likely
to face stiff resistance around the 5270-5330 (Negative Gap Resistance) followed by the 5400
levels.

MARKET OUTLOOK

The Nifty opened on a negative note and plunged to an intraday low of 5116 levels.

The NIFTY lost close to 200 points during the early part of the day’s trade. The index witnessed a pullback from the lower levels and finally closed at 5211 levels with a loss of 120 points.

The most important observation is that the index has registered a breakdown from its critical
support level of 5270 levels (as shown in the chart above).

This breakdown suggests that the index is likely to decline towards the level of 5100 - 5090 / 4970 /4800 levels in the near term.

Another key observation to be made is the oversold reading on short term indicators. Hence a
pullback from the current level cannot be ruled out.

Any up move from the current level is likely to face stiff resistance around the 5270-5330 (Negative Gap Resistance) followed by the 5400 levels.

Friday, August 5, 2011

MARKET OUTLOOK Nifty 05th August

The NIFTY opened on a positive note and registered an intraday high of 5434 levels. The Index witnessed selling pressure from the higher level which led it to decline to an intraday low of 5323. The NIFTY finally closed at 5331 with a loss of 73 points.

Index did witness some kind of bounce during the initial session, but failed to trade above its immediate resistance level of 5435.

The index continued its downward movement once it traded below the 5380 levels and has now closed at its important support range of 5340-5330. Sustenance below the 5330 level could see the index declining towards the level of 5270-5250 /5200 in the near term.

The immediate upside seems to be limited to the levels of 5380 /5435 levels, but a close above the 5435 levels might inject some optimism and a one could witness a bounce to levels of 5480 - 5500.

Thursday, August 4, 2011

MARKET OUTLOOK Nifty 04th August

The Nifty opened the session on a bearish note on the back of negative cues from its global peers.

The index registered an intraday low of 5378 levels and thereafter traded in a narrow range for the rest of the session. The Nifty finally closed at 5404 levels with a loss of 51 points.

With today’s movement the NIFTY has managed to achieve our second downside targets of 5380 levels. Going forward the index could take a breather after registering a strong decline of more than 170 points in the last two sessions.

In case the nifty manages to hold on to support levels of 5380 expect a rebound to levels of 5435-5450 /5480 over the next few days.

The immediate support is placed at 5380 followed by the 5343-5330 (NIFTY Gap support area).

Sustenance below the 5330 would be negative and could trigger further declines to the level of 5270-5250 in the near term.

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

MARKET OUTLOOK Nifty 03rd August

The Nifty opened the session on a bearish note on the back of negative cues from its global peers. The index spent the entire session trading in the negative territory and the selling pressure increased as the session progressed.

The index registered an intraday low of 5433 levels and finally closed the session at the 5456 levels with a loss of 60 points.

As discussed in the previous updates, we have consistently emphasized the importance of 5480 as a critical support for the index.

We had mentioned that a break below this level could start a fresh round of decline, which could take the index to 5435 / 5380 levels and the nifty did that.

With today’s movement the NIFTY has managed to achieve our first downside targets of 5435 levels. Incase NIFTY sustains below the 5435 levels then it could head to its next support level of 5380, below which the selling pressure could accentuate to levels of 5343-5330 (NIFTY Gap support area).

Any pullback from the current level is likely to face resistances at the 5480 /5520 levels.

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

MARKET OUTLOOK Nifty 02nd August

The NIFTY opened the session with a positive gap and registered an intraday high of 5551 levels. The index witnessed a sideways movement in the intraday session after a strong opening. The index eventually closed the day at 5516 levels with a gain of 34 points.

With today’s movement the index has registered a strong rebound from its support level of 5480 level. The nifty now needs to sustain above 5550, which would give some strength and a possible test of levels of 5600 -5630. In case the nifty fails to get past 5550, it would keep facing supply pressure and could re test the immediate support of 5480.

Sustenance below the 5480 would be negative for the NIFTY and this could trigger further declines to the level of 5435 /5380 in the near term.

Monday, August 1, 2011

MARKET OUTLOOK Nifty 01st August

The NIFTY opened the session on negative note and registered an intraday low of 5453 levels. However the buying returned at lower levels thus propelling the NIFTY past the 5500 mark.

But, the NIFTY witnessed selling pressure at the higher levels and eventually closed at 5482 levels with a nominal loss of 5 points.

Despite the volatility witnessed today the index has closed within its support range of 5495-5480 levels.

This is a very critical level (as it comes out as a support zone on multiple factors) and we believe that the chances of nifty holding out here are by far the best.

Sustenance below the 5480 level could see the index declining towards the level of 5435 /5380 in the near term.

The immediate upside seems to be limited to the levels of 5420 – 5545 levels, but a close above that might inject some optimist and a bounce to levels of 5600.